Contingency Planning for the Iranian Nuclear Threat

15 December 2005: Contingency Plans for a unilateral Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear capabilities are already well through planning stages due to the very real possibility that the time-line assessment of March 2006 being the point of no return for the Islamic Republic of Iran acquisition of nuclear weapons capability might be grossly in error.

Contrary to the assessment that the public hears via open-source media, the classified data on Iranian capabilities is probably altogether more disturbing. That actual vignettes for a strike against Iranian facilities are being run as a vital part advanced operational contingency planning has been reported on and otherwise whispered about for months now. This means real aircraft practicing for real strikes. This, more or less, means war - a bigger war than now exists in the Middle East/South West Asia.

The Israeli government and defense forces apparently believe that the Iranian Ayatollah's nuclear ambition can be stopped by military means, or that they have no option but to proceed with plans for a strike in the face of the existential threat a nuclear-armed Iran poses. No one in their right mind believes the Iranian's will stop their drive for nuclear weapons capability through diplomacy, and certainly not with Russian and Red Chinese assistance to Iran in every conceivably related technology - including delivery systems being full steam ahead.

The "Axis of Evil" enunciated by President Bush is ever-the-more evident in the efforts of these nations. In fact there is a better nomenclature for them -- they should be known as the Trans-Asian Axis. Their agenda and goals are diametrically opposed to the United States, Israel and the West as a whole.

What might happen?

My assessment is that Israel simply cannot deal with Iran in any unilateral military action. This is a fact made public by the Israeli newspaper Ma'ariv in a red-banner headline within the past few weeks.

This is also something I have made clear in my previous assessments in the recent past. Israel will, of absolute necessity, require US Air Force and Naval Aviation participation in any airborne strike against Iranian facilities. Israel will in the remaining interim hope for if not actively press for joint US/EU participation, particularly from the UK. In my original assessment I pointed out that Israeli F-15I strike aircraft would form the bulk striking power of any Israeli piloted airborne force - these aircraft as designed for such a mission profile as will be required. US aircraft would be similar and also provide the electronic cover for any joint airborne strike force.

It is widely not reported upon that Israel also probably possesses an missile-borne strike force capable of pin-point accuracy. Evidence of this exists in the fact that Israeli Ofek-5 spy satellites are capable of ephemeris-driven space maneuvers as required for nuclear re-entry vehicles. Defensively, Israeli Arrow BMD and US PAC-3 Patriots would provide anti-ballistic counter fire against anything Iran put into the air.

The truly unknown factors are what will come out of Hezbollah-controlled areas of Southern Lebanon and Syria in retaliation for any strike on Iran. We may find out where Saddam's WMD went after all. We may also discover this as a result of any potential enemy pre-emptive action in the near-term.

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